Theory of Change

A common tool used in International development is the Theory of Change. These are artifacts created for the planning and evaluation of aid projects which show how input actions ultimately lead to some desired impact.

The Theory of Change usually takes the form of a series of connected nodes, not dissimilar to a flowchart. The edges connecting the nodes show the causal relationships between them and so traversing a series of edges and nodes shows the pathway from one result to the next.

The theory of change is useful in that it allows us to think about what interventions will lead to the impact that we are hoping to see. Often it is with the overall goal that people will start the process, then working back through the causal linkages through the intermediate outcomes and back to the inputs needed to get there.

During the process of creating the theory of change the overall strategy can be scrutinised. The motivations for all activities are laid bare and any that do not contribute to the overall goal can be identified and eliminated.

I find the process interesting and so I started to wonder if the applications extended into other areas. I’m sure there would be opportunities to use something like this in a business transformation or something similar. Personally, I wondered if it could be a good way to set goals.

It is at this time of year that I usually think of goal setting and resolutions, but I have always struggled with the correct way to structure and define them. Some years I have set goals at the input level such as “I will spend 2 hours a week on side projects” or “I will read 20 pages of a book every day”. Some years I have set them at the outcome level with goals like “I want to log 40 hours of flight time with my paraglider this year” or “I want to become proficient at data visualisation”.

By putting my goals into a theory of change I can see how these things are connected to one another, and then go a step further and rationalise how they fit into wider and more intrinsic motivations.

This is what a theory of change for a part of my life might look like. The ultimate result at the top of the diagram is a lofty one, but is worth including in the exercise as it forces you to consider what this is. Yours may be different, at some stages in their life people may choose to value money, status, or power above contentment.

In reality there would be other strands leading into this goal but not everything needs to be included for the process to be beneficial. Hopefully it would be obvious that it would be a narrow definition of a life well lived if this were the plan for all of it.

In order for the Theory of Change to be more realistic we should also add in any assumptions we are making about the causal effect that we hope to see. These help us to understand any failings in our causal links and can highlight flaws in our reasoning.

Taking this process a step further, and following the lead of how aid projects are administered, we might then use our theory of change to generate a results framework (sometimes also referred to as a logical framework).

To do this we define the indicators (sometimes referred to as KPIs) we will track in order to measure our progress on each result and determine the success of our approach.

In the example below we take one strand of the Theory of Change and think about how we would go about measuring these results. What indicators should we use and what are their targets?

Thus we get the framework to track our approach and determine its success.

We have broken down what we would like to achieve, and determined what the motivations are for wanting to achieve it. We can determine our progress against each individual result and test our assumptions about the relations that connect them.

From here we can iterate and improve our theory. Maybe your inputs didn’t strongly correlate with your desired outcomes and so need to be reconsidered. Maybe measuring one of your indicators generated perverse incentives which distracted from the wider goal and so needs reworked.

Here are some notes if you would like to try this out for yourself.

• Focus on the process, rather than the outcome. The creation of the theory of change is the illuminating part and arguably more important than the artifact itself. The act of making your goals explicit, and thinking how you want to reach them, is an enlightening one. It forces you to prioritise and on the cutting room floor you may leave behind a lot of things you assumed you valued highly.
• Prioritise learning. Build in points of reflection during which you can evaluate your process and iterate for the next cycle.
• Think compass, not map. The theory of change can sometimes be considered a route map to get from where you are now to where you want to be, but life is rarely so simple. Situations and priorities change and so think of the process more as a compass guiding you through.

So give this a try yourself if you are so inclined. I don’t want to come across as a peddler of hustle culture, rather just sharing a framework which some may find beneficial. I’m sure there would be many more applications outside of personal development.

At any rate, even the best goal framework in the world won’t be worth a thing unless you put in the effort to achieve them. Unfortunately, this is usually the most difficult part.